Still a seller’s market, just a calmer one.

The median sale price came in 4.6% below last September, which sounds like news until you look at what sold. Single-family homes made up 75% of September’s sales, down from 85% a year earlier. When fewer houses are in the mix, the middle price for everything drops even if house prices haven’t moved.

And they hadn’t, much. Single-family homes on their own sold for a median of $363,000, up 0.8% on last September. The board’s benchmark price, which tracks the same typical home every month, sits at $355,400, up 1.1% on a year ago.

If you’ve ever watched the Reversing Falls at slack tide, you know the moment I mean. The water hasn’t turned around. It has just stopped rushing. That’s about where our market is.

Each chart below sets a month of 2026 beside the same month of 2025, both as the board first reported them. (Why that matters is in the notes at the bottom, for anyone who enjoys that sort of thing.)

Months of supply is the best single measure of who has the upper hand. It asks a simple question: if nobody listed another home, how many months would it take to sell everything that’s for sale now? Under four months, sellers have the edge. Between four and six is close to balanced.

This summer ran from 3.3 to 3.7 months, against 2.6 to 3.1 last summer. We’re still on the sellers’ side of the line, a few steps closer to it. (The winter months always look balanced, because nobody wants to carry a couch down the front steps in February.)

The Bank of Canada cut its key rate four times in 2025 and has held it at 2.25% ever since, most recently on September 2. That has been good news for buyers. The catch is inflation. Prices across Canada rose 3.0% over the year to August, mostly because of gasoline; leave gas out and it was 2.4%. When inflation sits above the Bank’s 2% target, the next move tends to be up rather than down.

Economists don’t agree on when. RBC and Desjardins expect the Bank to start raising rates early in 2027. Capital Economics expects a hold at the next meeting but calls it “a close call.” The next two decisions are October 28 and December 9.

Forecasting interest rates is a lot like forecasting fog in Saint John. You can be fairly sure there’ll be some, and anyone who tells you exactly when it lifts is guessing.

Here’s the part that matters right now: fixed mortgage rates don’t wait for the Bank. They follow the bond market, and the five-year Government of Canada yield hit a 52-week high in late September. All six big banks have since raised fixed rates, mostly by between 0.15 and 0.30 percentage points. On a $300,000 mortgage over 25 years, a quarter of a point adds about $42 a month. That won’t sink anybody, but it trims what a buyer can borrow, and it is one more reason the bidding has calmed down.

If your mortgage comes up for renewal in the next year, as many five-year terms signed during the pandemic do, start talking to your lender or a mortgage broker early. Some owners facing a bigger payment will decide to sell, which would add a few more homes to the market.

About 90% of New Brunswick’s exports go to the United States, a bigger share than any other province, according to TD Economics. A Canadian Chamber of Commerce study last year ranked Saint John the most tariff-exposed of Canada’s 41 largest cities, partly because of the energy we export. So when trade talks with Washington broke down in August and the US put 50% tariffs on about US$20 billion of Canadian goods, people here paid attention.

The good news is that the direct hit from that list is small. The province estimates it covers $115.1 million of New Brunswick exports, about 0.7% of the total. The Bank of Canada’s governor, speaking in Halifax on September 21, said Atlantic Canada is less exposed to tariffs than Ontario and Quebec.

The less good news is local, and it lands on real people. Moosehead says US tariffs are costing it six figures a month, and a US ban on many Canadian alcoholic drinks was set to start on September 29. The pulp mill in Nackawic will go idle at the end of October, about 350 jobs, with the company pointing to weak markets and coverage pointing to trade instability. UNB economist Herb Emery put it well in July: the tariffs “may not harm the overall economy” but “are going to do significant damage to local communities.”

Tariffs reach house prices mostly through jobs and confidence. Someone unsure about next year’s paycheque tends to put off buying, and a town that loses a big employer sees it in its listings. They also work through rates: tariffs slow the economy but push some prices up, which leaves the Bank of Canada less room to cut. TD expects New Brunswick’s unemployment rate to average 7.2% this year and home prices across the province to rise 0.4% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. That is a drag, not a cliff.

If you’re selling, price for the market we’re in, not the one from last summer. Homes took a median of 31 days to sell this August against 23 a year earlier. A well-priced house still goes quickly and still often goes over asking. An optimistic one now has company on the street, and buyers have time to compare.

If you’re buying, you have more to choose from than a year ago and a better chance of buying without a bidding war. A good house at the right price will still draw a crowd, so get your financing sorted before you fall in love with one.

Either way, the averages only go so far. If you want to know what this means for your street or your price range, get in touch or call me at (506) 650-1242.